This file was created with JabRef 2.2b2. Encoding: UTF8 @ARTICLE{Aragon2000, author = {T. Arag\'{o}n and S. Fernyak and R. Reiter}, title = {Risk of the hemolytic-uremic syndrome after antibiotic treatment of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections.}, journal = {N Engl J Med}, year = {2000}, volume = {343}, pages = {1271--2; author reply 1272-3}, number = {17}, month = {Oct}, keywords = {Anti-Bacterial Agents; Child; Confounding Factors (Epidemiology); Diarrhea; Escherichia coli Infections; Escherichia coli O157; Hemolytic-Uremic Syndrome; Humans; Risk; Severity of Illness Index}, owner = {tja}, pmid = {11183357}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @ARTICLE{Aragon2003a, author = {Tom\'{a}s J Arag\'{o}n and Susan E Fernyak}, title = {The risks and benefits of pre-event smallpox vaccination: where you stand depends on where you sit.}, journal = {Ann Emerg Med}, year = {2003}, volume = {42}, pages = {681--684}, number = {5}, month = {Nov}, doi = {10.1016/S0196064403008114}, keywords = {Bioterrorism; Disease Outbreaks; Emergency Medicine; Humans; Immunization Programs; Infection Control; Physician's Role; Public Health Practice; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Smallpox Vaccine; United States; Vaccinia}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {14581921.pdf}, pii = {S0196064403008114}, pmid = {14581921}, timestamp = {2006.12.23}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0196064403008114} } @ARTICLE{Aragon2003b, author = {Tom\'{a}s J Arag\'{o}n and Suzanne Novotny and Wayne Enanoria and Duc J Vugia and Asheena Khalakdina and Mitchell H Katz}, title = {Endemic cryptosporidiosis and exposure to municipal tap water in persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS): a case-control study.}, journal = {BMC Public Health}, year = {2003}, volume = {3}, pages = {2}, month = {Jan}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), Cryptosporidium parvum causes a prolonged, severe diarrheal illness to which there is no effective treatment, and the risk of developing cryptosporidiosis from drinking tap water in non-outbreak settings remains uncertain. To test the hypothesis that drinking tap water was associated with developing cryptosporidiosis, we conducted a matched case-control study among persons with AIDS in San Francisco. METHODS: Among patients reported to the San Francisco AIDS Registry from May 1996 through September 1998, we compared patients who developed cryptosporidiosis to those who did not. Cases were individually matched to controls based on age, sex, race/ethnicity, CD4+ T lymphocyte count, date of CD4+ count, and date of case diagnosis. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated. RESULTS: The study consisted of 49 cases and 99 matched controls. In the multivariable analysis with adjustments for confounders, tap water consumption inside and outside the home at the highest exposure categories was associated with the occurrence of cryptosporidiosis (inside the home: odds ratio (OR), 6.76; 95\% CI 1.37-33.5, and outside the home: OR 3.16; 95\% CI 1.23-8.13). The PAF was 85\%; that is, the proportion of cases of cryptosporidiosis in San Francisco AIDS patients attributable to tap water consumption could have been as high as 85\%. CONCLUSIONS: Although the results from this observational study cannot be considered definitive, until there is more data, we recommend persons with AIDS, especially those with compromised immune systems, consider avoiding tap water.}, keywords = {AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Adult; Animals; CD4 Lymphocyte Count; Case-Control Studies; Cryptosporidiosis; Cryptosporidium parvum; Endemic Diseases; Female; Filtration; Humans; Immunocompromised Host; Male; Middle Aged; San Francisco; Water; Water Pollution; Water Supply}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {12515584.pdf}, pmid = {12515584}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @ARTICLE{Aragon2003c, author = {Tom\'{a}s J Arag\'{o}n and Skylar Ulrich and Susan Fernyak and George W Rutherford}, title = {Risks of serious complications and death from smallpox vaccination: a systematic review of the United States experience, 1963-1968.}, journal = {BMC Public Health}, year = {2003}, volume = {3}, pages = {26}, month = {Aug}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The United States (US) has re-instituted smallpox vaccinations to prepare for an intentional release of the smallpox virus into the civilian population. In an outbreak, people of all ages will be vaccinated. To prepare for the impact of large-scale ring and mass vaccinations, we conducted a systematic review of the complication and mortality risks of smallpox vaccination. We summarized these risks for post-vaccinial encephalitis, vaccinia necrosum (progressive vaccinia), eczema vaccinatum, generalized vaccinia, and accidental infection (inadvertant autoinoculation). METHODS: Using a MEDLINE search strategy, we identified 348 articles, of which seven studies met our inclusion criteria (the number of primary vaccinations and re-vaccinations were reported, sufficient data were provided to calculate complication or case-fatality risks, and comparable case definitions were used). For each complication, we estimated of the complication, death, and case-fatality risks. RESULTS: The life-threatening complications of post-vaccinial encephalitis and vaccinia necrosum were at least 3 and 1 per million primary vaccinations, respectively. Twenty-nine percent of vaccinees with post-vaccinial encephalitis died and 15\% with vaccinia necrosum died. There were no deaths among vaccinees that developed eczema vaccinatum; however, 2.3\% of non-vaccinated contacts with eczema vaccinatum died. Among re-vaccinees, the risk of post-vaccinial encephalitis was reduced 26-fold, the risk of generalized vaccinia was reduced 29-fold, and the risk of eczema vaccinatum was reduced 12-fold. However, the risk reductions of accidental infection and vaccinia necrosum were modest (3.8 and 1.5 fold respectively).}, doi = {10.1186/1471-2458-3-26}, keywords = {Bioterrorism; Encephalitis, Viral; Humans; Mass Immunization; Necrosis; Risk Assessment; Smallpox; Smallpox Vaccine; Survival Analysis; Vaccinia}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {12911836.pdf}, pmid = {12911836}, timestamp = {2006.12.23}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-3-26} } @BOOK{Aschengrau2003, title = {Essentials of Epidemiology in Public Health}, publisher = {Jones \& Bartlett Publishers}, year = {2003}, author = {Ann Aschengrau and George R. Seage}, month = {4}, note = {458 pages}, isbn = {0763725374}, owner = {tja}, timestamp = {2007.01.08}, url = {http://amazon.com/o/ASIN/0763725374/} } @ARTICLE{Baer1999, author = {J. T. Baer and D. J. Vugia and A. L. Reingold and T. Aragon and F. J. Angulo and W. Z. Bradford}, title = {HIV infection as a risk factor for shigellosis.}, journal = {Emerg Infect Dis}, year = {1999}, volume = {5}, pages = {820--823}, number = {6}, abstract = {We investigated cases of shigellosis in San Francisco and Alameda Counties identified during 1996 by active laboratory surveillance to assess the role of HIV infection as a risk factor for shigellosis. Dramatically elevated rates of shigellosis in HIV-infected persons implicate HIV infection as an important risk factor for shigellosis in San Francisco.}, keywords = {Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Child; Child, Preschool; Dysentery, Bacillary; Female; HIV Infections; Homosexuality, Male; Hospitalization; Humans; Incidence; Male; Middle Aged; Population Surveillance; Risk Factors; San Francisco; Shigella flexneri; Shigella sonnei; Travel}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {10603219.pdf}, pmid = {10603219}, timestamp = {2006.12.23}, url = {http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no6/baer.htm} } @ARTICLE{Bangsberg2002, author = {David R Bangsberg and Judith I Rosen and Tomás Aragón and Andre Campbell and Lucy Weir and Francoise Perdreau-Remington}, title = {Clostridial myonecrosis cluster among injection drug users: a molecular epidemiology investigation.}, journal = {Arch Intern Med}, year = {2002}, volume = {162}, pages = {517--522}, number = {5}, month = {Mar}, abstract = {A molecular epidemiologic investigation was performed on a cluster of severe necrotizing Clostridium infections in 5 injection drug users admitted to an urban community hospital. Interviews with survivors suggested a point source of infection. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of SmaI restriction digests was performed to determine the molecular relatedness of clinically obtained isolates and isolates obtained from heroin samples and the home environment. A common clonal strain was found in Clostridium sordellii isolates from 2 socially unrelated patients and from drug paraphernalia. Clonality of a Clostridium perfringens strain from another patient isolate was identical to an isolate from a syringe found in her home. Other C perfringens isolates from patients, heroin, and the environment were determined to be polyclonal. We postulate that rapid recognition and public health notification led to rapid resolution of the outbreak.}, keywords = {Adult; Clostridium Infections; Clostridium perfringens; Debridement; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemiology, Molecular; Female; Heroin; Humans; Male; Necrosis; San Francisco; Soft Tissue Infections; Substance Abuse, Intravenous}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {11871919.pdf}, pii = {isa10009}, pmid = {11871919}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @BOOK{Berners-Lee2000, title = {Weaving the {W}eb: {T}he {O}riginal {D}esign and {U}ltimate {D}estiny of the {W}orld {W}ide {W}eb}, publisher = {HarperBusiness}, year = {2000}, author = {Tim {Berners-Lee}}, edition = {1st}, month = {November} } @BOOK{, title = {Principles of Epidemiology: An Introduction to Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics}, publisher = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention}, year = {1992}, editor = {CDC}, author = {CDC}, address = {Atlanta}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.07.19} } @ARTICLE{Colford1996, author = {J. M. Colford and I. B. Tager and A. M. Hirozawa and G. F. Lemp and T. Aragon and C. Petersen}, title = {Cryptosporidiosis among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus. Factors related to symptomatic infection and survival.}, journal = {Am J Epidemiol}, year = {1996}, volume = {144}, pages = {807--816}, number = {9}, month = {Nov}, abstract = {The authors reviewed the medical records of 194 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients newly diagnosed with cryptosporidiosis and all 3,564 patients with newly diagnosed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) at San Francisco General Hospital for the period 1986-1992. The study was designed to address three questions: 1) How do AIDS patients who present with cryptosporidiosis differ from other patients with AIDS? 2) What factors are associated with survival among AIDS patients with newly diagnosed cryptosporidiosis? 3) Does a diagnosis of cryptosporidiosis impact survival after AIDS diagnosis? A total of 194 cases of cryptosporidiosis among HIV-infected patients were identified during the study period. Of the 194 patients, 109 (56\%) had no prior diagnosis of AIDS. These 109 patients represented 3.1\% of the 3,564 newly diagnosed cases of AIDS in the same period. Among the 134 patients with CD4 T-lymphocyte counts performed within 3 months of Cryptosporidium diagnosis, 34 (25\%) had CD4 counts greater than 209 cells/ml. In a multivariate conditional logistic regression model, the incidence of Cryptosporidium was related to ethnicity (for blacks vs. whites, matched odds ratio (OR) = 0.15, 95\% confidence interval (CI) 0.03-0.73), CD4 count (for a CD4 count of < or = 53 cells/ml vs. > 53 cells/ml, matched OR = 12.60, 95\% CI 4.01-39.61), and age (for a 10-year increase, matched OR = 0.51, 95\% CI 0.27-0.98). Two factors measured at the time of Cryptosporidium diagnosis were identified as being independently associated with survival (p < 0.001) in the proportional hazards model: CD4 count < or = 53 cells/ml versus > 53 cells/ml (relative hazard = 6.18, 95\% CI 2.99-12.76) and hematocrit < or 37\% versus > 37\% (relative hazard = 2.27, 95\% CI 1.22-4.22). The median durations of survival in the four subgroups of Cryptosporidium-infected patients defined by these two variables differed significantly from each other (range, 204-1,119 days). Cryptosporidiosis as an initial AIDS-defining diagnosis was associated with an elevated relative hazard of death in comparison with other AIDS-defining diagnoses (relative hazard = 2.01, 95\% CI 1.38-2.93). These data identify the groups of HIV-infected individuals at risk for presentation with symptomatic Cryptosporidium infection; the distinct survival patterns among subgroups of those patients already infected with this parasite; and the survival of AIDS patients with newly diagnosed cryptosporidiosis relative to patients with other AIDS-defining conditions. Such information is necessary for the design of prospective studies, the development of prophylactic strategies, the evaluation of candidate therapies, and the provision of prognostic information to patients.}, keywords = {AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Adult; CD4 Lymphocyte Count; Case-Control Studies; Cryptosporidiosis; Female; HIV Infections; Humans; Incidence; Male; Risk Factors; San Francisco; Survival Analysis}, owner = {tja}, pmid = {8890659}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @ARTICLE{CDC2001a, author = {C{DC}}, title = {Shigella sonnei outbreak among men who have sex with men--{S}an {F}rancisco, {C}alifornia, 2000-2001.}, journal = {M{MWR} {M}orb {M}ortal {W}kly {R}ep}, year = {2001}, volume = {50}, pages = {922--926}, number = {42}, month = {Oct}, note = {Reported by: JD Klausner, MD, T Aragon, MD, WTA Enanoria, MPH, JK Mann, MPH, VM Zapitz, MS, D Portnoy, MPH, San Francisco Dept of Public Health, San Francisco; SA Shallow, MPH, California Emerging Infections Disease Program; K Israel-Ballard, MS Kim, MPH, Univ of California at Berkeley, School of Public Health, Berkeley; J O'Connell, DJ Vugia, MD, Acting State Epidemiologist, California Dept of Health Svcs. State Br, Div of Applied Public Health Training, Epidemiology Program Office, Foodborne and Diarrheal Br, Div of Bacterial and Mycotic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases; and an EIS Officer, CDC.}, abstract = {Shigella sonnei causes approximately 10,000 cases of gastroenteritis each year in the {U}nited {S}tates. {T}hese infections occur predominately among young children and usually are associated with poor hygienic conditions in child-care settings. {O}utbreaks of shigellosis among men who have sex with men ({MSM}) have occurred because of direct or indirect oral-anal contact but usually are caused by {S}higella flexneri. {T}his report describes an investigation of {S}. sonnei cases that occurred among {MSM} in {S}an {F}rancisco during {M}ay-{D}ecember 2000. {F}ollowing efforts to heighten awareness, the number of cases has declined, but new cases continue to occur at low levels in this risk group ({F}igure 1). {T}he increased incidence of sexually transmitted {S}higella and other sexually transmitted diseases ({STD}s) in {MSM} require renewed and innovative prevention efforts.}, keywords = {Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Bacillary, Disease Outbreaks, Dysentery, Homosexuality, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, San Francisco, Shigella sonnei, 11699845}, owner = {Tomas}, pdf = {mm5042.pdf}, pmid = {11699845}, timestamp = {2006.01.09}, url = {http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5042.pdf} } @ARTICLE{Disease1999, author = {C{DC}}, title = {Nosocomial group {A} streptococcal infections associated with asymptomatic health-care workers--{M}aryland and {C}alifornia, 1997.}, journal = {M{MWR} {M}orb {M}ortal {W}kly {R}ep}, year = {1999}, volume = {48}, pages = {163--166}, number = {8}, month = {Mar}, note = {Reported by: T Aragon, MD, M Katz, MD, City and County of San Francisco Dept of Public Health; L Mintz, MD, Univ of California, San Francisco; D Vugia, MD, S Waterman, MD, State Epidemiologist, California Dept of Health Svcs. D Bradshaw, MD, T Lacey, M Sanders, PhD, D Dwyer, MD, State Epidemiologist, Maryland Dept of Health and Mental Hygiene. Respiratory Diseases Br, Div of Bacterial and Mycotic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases; Div of Applied Public Health Training, Epidemiology Program Office; and EIS officers, CDC.}, abstract = {Group {A} {S}treptococcus ({GAS}), a common cause of pharyngitis and uncomplicated skin and soft tissue infections, can cause serious invasive infections (including necrotizing fasciitis and streptococcal toxic-shock syndrome [{STSS}]) and death. {S}ince 1965, at least 15 postoperative or postpartum {GAS} outbreaks attributed to asymptomatic carriage in health-care workers ({HCW}s) have been reported. {T}his report describes two nosocomial outbreaks of {GAS} infection in {M}aryland and {C}alifornia during 1996-1997; the findings suggest that early infection-control measures that include active surveillance may interrupt transmission and prevent morbidity and mortality.}, keywords = {Adult, California, Carrier State, Contact Tracing, Cross Infection, Female, Health Personnel, Humans, Male, Maryland, Streptococcal Infections, Streptococcus pyogenes, 10079063}, owner = {Tomas}, pmid = {10079063}, timestamp = {2006.01.17} } @TECHREPORT{, author = {Wayne Enanoria and Andrew Anglemyer and Tomas J Arag\{'o}n}, title = {Washoe {C}ounty {N}eeds {A}ssessment of {M}edical {P}roviders}, institution = {Center for Infectious Disease Preparedness University of California at Berkeley}, year = {2005}, month = {August}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.01.22} } @BOOK{Friis2003, title = {Epidemiology for Public Health Practice, Third Edition}, publisher = {Jones \& Bartlett Publishers}, year = {2003}, author = {Robert H. Friis and Thomas A. Sellers}, edition = {3rd}, month = {10}, note = {640 pages}, isbn = {0763731706}, owner = {tja}, timestamp = {2007.01.08}, url = {http://amazon.com/o/ASIN/0763731706/} } @ARTICLE{Hambleton1995, author = {J. Hambleton and T. Aragón and G. Modin and D. W. Northfelt and M. A. Sande}, title = {Outcome for hospitalized patients with fever and neutropenia who are infected with the human immunodeficiency virus.}, journal = {Clin Infect Dis}, year = {1995}, volume = {20}, pages = {363--371}, number = {2}, month = {Feb}, abstract = {We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the occurrence of bacteremia and associated mortality among hospitalized patients who were seropositive for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and who developed fever and neutropenia following antineoplastic chemotherapy or for other reasons. Review of medical records revealed 224 episodes in 142 patients. Of these episodes, 57\% occurred following antineoplastic chemotherapy, and 43\% occurred under other circumstances. Members of the chemotherapy group had significantly less-advanced HIV disease, a lower mean absolute-neutrophil-count nadir, and a shorter duration of hospitalization. There was no difference between the two groups in the frequency of bacteremia or mortality due to all causes when they were compared by multivariate analysis. Statistically significant univariate and multivariate predictors of bacteremia included sepsis syndrome and concurrent infection. Predictors of mortality included sepsis syndrome, concurrent infection, bacteremia, and antimicrobial therapy. This study suggests that the cause of neutropenia in HIV-seropositive patients is not a predictor of the outcome of fever and neutropenic episodes. Instead, clinical presentation and concomitant illnesses have a greater impact on outcome for a patient.}, keywords = {AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections; Adult; Antineoplastic Agents; Bacteremia; Cohort Studies; Fever; HIV Seropositivity; Hospital Mortality; Hospitalization; Humans; Lymphoma, AIDS-Related; Neutropenia; Prognosis; Retrospective Studies; Risk Factors}, owner = {tja}, pmid = {7742443}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @BOOK{Jewell2003, title = {Statistics for Epidemiology}, publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC}, year = {2003}, author = {Nicholas P. Jewell}, month = {8}, note = {352 pages}, isbn = {1584884339}, timestamp = {2007.01.08}, url = {http://amazon.com/o/ASIN/1584884339/} } @BOOK{, title = {Study Design and Statistical Analysis : A Practical Guide for Clinicians}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {2006}, author = {Mitchell Katz}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.02.17} } @BOOK{Katz1999, title = {Multivariable Analysis : A Practical Guide for Clinicians}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1999}, author = {Mitchell H. Katz}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.02.17} } @BOOK{Kleinbaum2002, title = {Logistic {R}egression: {A} self-learning text}, publisher = {Springer}, year = {2002}, author = {David G. Kleinbaum and Mitchell Klein and E. Rihl Pryor}, edition = {2nd} } @BOOK{, title = {Guide to \LaTeX: Tools and Techniques for Computer Typesetting}, publisher = {Addison-Wesley Professional}, year = {2003}, author = {Helmut Kopka and Patrick W. Daly}, edition = {4th Edition}, owner = {tja}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @BOOK{Lamport1994, title = {\LaTeX: A Document Preparation System}, publisher = {Addison-Wesley Professional}, year = {1994}, author = {Leslie Lamport}, edition = {2nd}, month = {June}, keywords = {LaTeX} } @BOOK{Matthews2001, title = {Successful {S}cientific {W}riting: {A} {S}tep-{B}y-step {G}uide for {B}iomedical {S}cientists}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {2001}, author = {Janice R. Matthews and John M. Bowen and Robert W. Matthews}, month = {January}, optedition = {2nd} } @ARTICLE{Porco2001a, author = {T. C. Porco and T. J. Aragón and S. E. Fernyak and S. H. Cody and D. J. Vugia and M. H. Katz and D. R. Bangsberg}, title = {Risk of infection from needle reuse at a phlebotomy center.}, journal = {Am J Public Health}, year = {2001}, volume = {91}, pages = {636--638}, number = {4}, month = {Apr}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study determined infection risk for HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) from needle reuse at a phlebotomy center that possibly exposed 3810 patients to infection. METHODS: We used a model for the risk of infection per blood draw, supplemented by subsequent testing results from 1699 patients. RESULTS: The highest risk of transmission was for HBV infection: 1.1 x 10(-6) in the best case and 1.2 x 10(-3) in the (unlikely) worst case. Subsequent testing yielded prevalence rates of 0.12\%, 0.41\%, and 0.88\% for HIV, HBV, and HCV, respectively, lower than National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III prevalence estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The infection risk was very low; few, if any, transmissions are likely to have occurred.}, keywords = {California; Equipment Contamination; Equipment Reuse; HIV Infections; Hepatitis B; Hepatitis C; Humans; Infection Control; Needles; Phlebotomy; Probability; Risk Assessment}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {11291380.pdf}, pmid = {11291380}, timestamp = {2006.12.23} } @ARTICLE{Porco2004b, author = {Travis C Porco and Karen A Holbrook and Susan E Fernyak and Diane L Portnoy and Randy Reiter and Tomás J Aragón}, title = {Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model.}, journal = {BMC Public Health}, year = {2004}, volume = {4}, pages = {34}, month = {Aug}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95\% of household contacts are traced, 80\% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1-5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance.}, doi = {10.1186/1471-2458-4-34}, keywords = {Computer Simulation; Contact Tracing; Disease Outbreaks; Family Characteristics; Humans; Models, Biological; Neural Networks (Computer); Probability; Residence Characteristics; Smallpox; Smallpox Vaccine; Social Support; Stochastic Processes; Vaccination; Workplace}, owner = {tja}, pdf = {15298713.pdf}, pii = {1471-2458-4-34}, pmid = {15298713}, timestamp = {2006.12.23}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-4-34} } @BOOK{Rothman2002, title = {Epidemiology: {A}n {I}ntroduction}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {2002}, author = {Kenneth J. Rothman}, edition = {1st} } @BOOK{Rothman1998, title = {Modern {E}pidemiology}, publisher = {Lippincott Williams \& Wilkins}, year = {1998}, author = {Kenneth J. Rothman and Sander Greenland}, edition = {2nd}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.02.10} } @BOOK{Rubens2000, title = {Science and {T}echnical {W}riting: {A} {M}anual of {S}tyle}, publisher = {Routledge}, year = {2000}, editor = {Philip Rubens}, author = {Philip Rubens}, edition = {2nd} } @BOOK{, title = {Microbial Threats to Health Emergence, Detection, and Response: Emergence, Detection, and Response}, publisher = {National Academies Press}, year = {2003}, editor = {Mark S. Smolinski and Margaret A. Hamburg and Joshua Lederberg}, author = {Mark S. Smolinski and Margaret A. Hamburg and Joshua Lederberg}, month = {September}, note = {ISBN: 030908864X}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.07.19} } @BOOK{Thomas2001, title = {Epidemiologic {M}ethods for the {S}tudy of {I}nfectious {D}iseases}, publisher = {Oxford University Press, USA}, year = {2001}, author = {James C. Thomas and David J. Weber}, edition = {1st}, month = {March}, note = {ISBN: 0195121120}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.01.16} } @BOOK{Vittinghoff2005, title = {Regression Methods in Biostatistics: Linear, Logistic, Survival, and Repeated Measures Models (Statistics for Biology and Health)}, publisher = {Springer}, year = {2005}, author = {Eric Vittinghoff and David V. Glidden and Stephen C. Shiboski and Charles E. McCulloch}, edition = {1}, month = {12}, note = {344 pages}, isbn = {0387202757}, owner = {tja}, timestamp = {2007.01.08}, url = {http://amazon.com/o/ASIN/0387202757/} } @BOOK{Ahrens2004, title = {Handbook of {E}pidemiology}, publisher = {Springer}, year = {2004}, editor = {Wolfgang Ahrens and Iris Pigeot}, edition = {1st}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.02.05} } @BOOK{, title = {Control {O}f {C}ommunicable {D}iseases {M}anual}, publisher = {American Public Health Association}, year = {2004}, editor = {David L. Heymann}, owner = {Tomas}, timestamp = {2006.02.10} } @MANUAL{rproject, title = {R---{A} language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. {A}vailable from: http://www.r-project.org.}, owner = {tja}, timestamp = {2007.01.07} } @MANUAL{texaide, title = {Te{X}aide}, note = {Equation Editor that generates TeX and LaTeX on the clipboard, where it can be pasted into any TeX/LaTeX system. Available for free at}, owner = {tja}, timestamp = {2007.01.07}, url = {http://www.mathtype.com/en/products/TeXaide/default.asp} }